15th Gera Pune Residential Realty Report Highlights Market at Delicate Inflection Point

Pune, January 10, 2026: Gera Developments Private Limited (GDPL) has released the January 2026 edition of The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report, its bi-annual, census-based study of Pune’s residential real estate market.

Now in its 15th year, the report remains Pune’s only comprehensive census of the residential market, tracking over 1,900 active projects and nearly 2.9 lakh homes under development, offering a data-driven view of market performance for the 12 months ended December 2025.

Highlights

• Steep rise in Prices: Average prices increased by ~11.8 per cent year-on-year to INR 7,367 per sq ft, the sharpest annual rise in the past five years
• Sales remain stable: Residential sales stood at approximately 90,591 units, representing a marginal 1 per cent year-on-year dip
• Drop in interest rates: The drop of approximately 125 basis points in interest rates over the year increases affordability by almost 9 per cent acting as a counter balance to the increased rate per sq ft.
• Supply rebounds: New launches increased to 98,472 units up from 91,402 units in 2024, pushing the replacement ratio to 1.09
• Inventory value surges: Total unsold inventory value rose sharply to an all-time high of INR 85,680 crore, up nearly 30 per cent year-over-year.
• Inventory overhang increases: Overhang rose to 10.77 months
• Structural consolidation continues: Number of active projects declined sharply to 1,918, driven by the exit of smaller developers
• Larger homes dominate: Average size of newly launched homes reached 1,266 sq ft, the highest on record
• Market shifts towards higher bedroom count: 36 per cent of homes launched are 3 & 4 bedroom to align with the modern homebuyer’s demand.
• Stark divergence in segmental performance: While the Luxury (> INR 9,717 per sq. ft.) and Premium tiers (INR 6,581 – INR 9,717 per sq. ft.) remain resilient through ‘Value Migration’, the mid-market (INR 4,720 – INR 6,581 per sq. ft.) segments are recalibrating under the weight of ‘Sticker Shock’.

Market Overview

Pune’s residential market in 2025 remained stable but increasingly sensitive to supply, pricing, and affordability dynamics. Average prices per sq ft have risen 11.8 per cent; this change is significant as it comes on the back of 4 years of rising prices and is greater than any of the increases in the previous 4 years. Notably however, home sales during 2025 were stable with approximately 90,000 homes being sold – broadly in line with the homes sold in 2024.

This stability has been supported largely by falling interest rates, which have partially offset the sharp rise in overall ticket sizes. The EMI for a 20-year mortgage at 8.75 per cent is INR 883/lakh whereas at 7.5 per cent the EMI is INR 805/lakh. This is a near 9 per cent increase in affordability on account of the drop-in interest rates.

Demand for larger homes and premium configurations has remained resilient. Sales growth was strongest in homes sized 1,400 sq ft and above, while compact homes continued to see pressure.

Supply, Inventory and Developer Behaviour

After two years of restrained launches, developers increased supply in the latter half of 2025, representing an 8 per cent increase year-over-year. The total number of new units launched for the 12 months ended December 2025 reached 98,472 units. This pushed the replacement ratio above equilibrium, resulting in a measurable increase in inventory available for sale which now stands at 81,330 units, up from 74,656 units in December 2024.

Importantly, this increase in inventory has been accompanied by a sharp rise in inventory value, not unit count alone. The total value of inventory available for sale has surged to an all-time high of INR 85,680 crore, a staggering 30 per cent year-on-year increase from the INR 65,899 crore recorded in December 2024. This divergence, where the value of inventory is growing significantly faster than the unit count, confirms that Pune has successfully migrated toward higher-ticket, larger-format homes marking a transition in Pune’s residential market from volume-led growth to value-led outcomes driven by a more mature and affluent buyer profile.

At the same time, the number of active projects fell sharply, underscoring ongoing market consolidation. Smaller projects and developers continue to exit, while supply is increasingly concentrated within large, capital-intensive developments.

Commenting on the findings, Rohit Gera, Managing Director, Gera Developments Private Limited, said: “The Pune residential market at the end of 2025 is not weak, but it is no longer on autopilot. Prices have risen sharply, inventory value has expanded significantly, and supply has begun to edge ahead of absorption. These are not alarming signals in isolation, but together they suggest a market that is far more sensitive to missteps than it has been over the past two years.

Interest rate cuts have helped sustain sales, but they cannot indefinitely offset rising ticket sizes. The key risk now is not a sudden downturn, but a gradual softening if supply discipline weakens or prices rise indiscriminately. The market does not need more supply; it needs better-timed supply and pricing discipline.

For homebuyers, this is a market where execution capability, financial strength, and developer credibility matter more than ever. For developers, caution in phasing, configuration planning, and pricing will determine whether the market holds its balance or slowly tips into a softer phase.”

Outlook

Pune’s residential market enters 2026 in a state of equilibrium under pressure. While macroeconomic indicators and infrastructure development remain supportive, the margin for error has narrowed.

The data suggests that the next phase of the cycle will be shaped less by demand shocks and more by developer behaviour. Markets with disciplined supply, realistic pricing, and rightsized products are likely to remain stable, while indiscriminate launches and pricing could gradually erode momentum.